A preview of tonight’s Long program…my predictions and such regarding the contenders:
Mirai Nagasu, USA: This girl has the most amazing spins. In the short program she spun so fast that she actually gave herself a nosebleed. That’s rather impressive. She does not however have a triple triple combo, and she has a tendency to cheat the landings of her jumps. To really have a chance to contend for the podium, she’d have to upgrade her difficulty level and her GOE for each element. Her layback spin should be in the USFSA manual as a textbook example of perfection. I don’t think she’ll medal. But if she’s around in 4 years…she’ll be hard to beat.
Mao Asada, Japan: The only woman in the competition who has a triple axel—impressive, but as I’ve said before jumps aren’t everything. She does have more of the whole package than others, but her spins are very slow—very slow. Her footwork is also a bit weak.. In order for her to beat Kim YuNa, she’s going to have to step up her spins. She has good base values for her elements, but needs to increase her GOE.
Kim Yu Na, Korea: Gotta love the James Bond program. This girl is a star and she knows it. Coached by Brian Orser of Canada. Her triple triple combination blows any one else’s jumps out of the water and her spins are beautiful. She’s fast…really fast. The speed of her skating and footwork is very impressive. Additionally, she has character and power on the ice…she doesn’t look terrified, but rather seems to really flirt with the audience. She plays to the audience even in the short program, where the other ladies seem to be trying to get a job done. She will most surely win the gold unless something goes terribly wrong. She set the world record for a short record score. She really is *that* good.
Joannie Rochette, Canada: Tear Jerker story—her mom died suddenly on SUNDAY and this woman somehow summons the courage to take the ice and not only does she make it through her program, she kicks ass and is sitting in 3rd place. You could feel the audience behind her, but her skate was beautiful. She’s got great jumps and spins and fantastic maturity. With an increase in Difficulty she could challenge for the gold, but as it stands, I think she will win the bronze if she can repeat her performance from the short. It would be a triumph should she be able to do so.
Rachel Flatt, USA: What a great short program! Full of energy and character. I really expected her to be much more nervous, but she did so well. She needs to not cheat her landings to prevent GOE deductions if she wants to make the podium, but otherwise, she’s really very skilled and could challenge for a medal with a clean free skate tonight.
Miki Ando, Japan: Overall, an odd program, but her jumps are not clean and she won’t have a chance at the podium unless she lands them cleanly. I’m surprised she’s ranked as highly as she is, but she’s only 9 points ahead of Rachel Flatt, so it’s not that big of a difference.
So, tonight, if they all skate cleanly, this is how it will shake down:
1. Kim YuNa
2. Mao Asada
3. Joannie Rochette
However, if all hell breaks loose and there are falls and upsets, this is how it could be
1. Mao Asada
2. Kim YuNa
3. Rachel Flatt
Let’s also take a moment for realism. There are 30 ladies in the short program, 24 in the long. The reality of the Figure Skating world is that there are fewer than 100 top level skaters on the planet at any time. There are probably 100 little girls at my own rink who think they are the next Michele Kwan, and honestly only one of them has the potential to compete on a national stage, much less internationally. It’s a tough sport—physically and emotionally and the fact that these teenage girls and young adult women even make it to the Olympic stage is nothing short of amazing. I wish that NBC would do more to show all of the programs or at least tell more of the stories of these athletes who work so hard...not just the ones that can medal.
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